Human/Swine H1N1 Influenza
/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=sectionlist/groups/influenza/search/?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=sectionSectionsCustomTagSidebarCustomTagSidebar?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=section0/groups/influenza/sidebar/CustomTagSidebarmodifiedDate5CustomTagSidebarreversesectionSectionscustom/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?tag=hotlist/groups/influenza/search/?tag=hotWhat’s HotHotListHot!?tag=hot20/groups/influenza/sidebar/HotListrambautAndrew Rambaut2010-04-22 13:35:38+00:002010-04-22 13:35:38updated12rambautAndrew Rambaut2010-04-22 13:34:53+00:002010-04-22 13:34:53updated11rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-07-08 14:53:06+00:002009-07-08 14:53:06updated10Updated links to final versionlycettSam Lycett2009-07-01 05:34:14+00:002009-07-01 05:34:14updated9rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:19+00:002009-06-12 07:40:19updated8Added tag - hotrambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:17+00:002009-06-12 07:40:17addTag7rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:08+00:002009-06-12 07:40:08updated6rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:27:06+00:002009-06-12 07:27:06updated5rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:17:50+00:002009-06-12 07:17:50updated4rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:15:25+00:002009-06-12 07:15:25updated3rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:15:17+00:002009-06-12 07:15:17updated2First additionrambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:13:50+00:002009-06-12 07:13:50created1wiki2010-04-22T13:35:38+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/1b2c3FalseH1N1: Origins and evolution of the current epidemic/groups/influenza/wiki/1b2c3/H1N1_Origins_and_evolution_of_the_current_epidemic.htmlAndrew Rambaut12 updatesH1N1: Origins and evolution of the current epidemic
Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic
Gavin J. D. Smith1, Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna1...Falserambaut2010-04-22T13:35:38+00:00Shanghai/71T/09 does not have PB2-627KlycettSam Lycett2009-06-28 16:11:04+00:002009-06-28 16:11:04updated7lycettSam Lycett2009-06-28 16:06:53+00:002009-06-28 16:06:53updated6lycettSam Lycett2009-06-19 07:03:23+00:002009-06-19 07:03:23updated5Added tag - hotlycettSam Lycett2009-06-19 07:03:22+00:002009-06-19 07:03:22addTag4A/Shanghai/71T/2009 & PB2-627KlycettSam Lycett2009-06-18 22:40:51+00:002009-06-18 22:40:51updated3PB2-627K on A/Shanghai/71T/2009lycettSam Lycett2009-06-18 22:34:10+00:002009-06-18 22:34:10updated2First additionlycettSam Lycett2009-06-18 22:12:59+00:002009-06-18 22:12:59created1wiki2009-06-28T16:11:04+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/8bc58FalsePB2-627K & PB2-701N in A/Shanghai/71T/2009/groups/influenza/wiki/8bc58/PB2627K__PB2701N_in_AShanghai71T2009.htmlSam Lycett7 updatesPB2-627K & PB2-701N in A/Shanghai/71T/2009
Notes on A/Shanghai/71T/2009
by Sam Lycett
Update 28 June 09
The sequences A/Shanghai/71T/2009 were updated on 24...Falselycett2009-06-28T16:11:04+00:00comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:28:29+00:002009-05-10 21:28:29updated6comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:27:07+00:002009-05-10 21:27:07updated5comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:26:45+00:002009-05-10 21:26:45updated4Added tag - hotcomasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:26:43+00:002009-05-10 21:26:43addTag3comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:26:25+00:002009-05-10 21:26:25updated2First additioncomasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:13:16+00:002009-05-10 21:13:16created1wiki2009-05-10T21:28:29+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/aba06FalseUpdated Median Joining network (HA genes) - 8 May 2009 - Iñaki Comas/groups/influenza/wiki/aba06/Updated_Median_Joining_network_HA_genes__8_May_2009__Iaki_Comas.htmlIñaki Comas6 updatesUpdated Median Joining network (HA genes) - 8 May 2009 - Iñaki Comas
Here is an update of the median joining network with all swine samples available at GISAID as of 8 of May. The alignment was provided by Oliver Pyb...Falsecomas2009-05-10T21:28:29+00:00pybusOliver Pybus2009-05-08 15:45:54+00:002009-05-08 15:45:54updated6pybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 19:32:17+00:002009-05-06 19:32:17updated5Added tag - selectionpybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:30:11+00:002009-05-06 18:30:11addTag4Added tag - hotpybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:29:59+00:002009-05-06 18:29:59addTag3pybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:29:25+00:002009-05-06 18:29:25updated2First additionpybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:18:26+00:002009-05-06 18:18:26created1wiki2009-05-08T15:45:54+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/87337FalseAmino acid changes in HA, NA & MP leading to outbreak 6 May 2009 - Oliver Pybus and Samir Bhatt/groups/influenza/wiki/87337/Amino_acid_changes_in_HA_NA__MP_leading_to_outbreak_6_May_2009__Oliver_Pybus_and_Samir_Bhatt.htmlOliver Pybus6 updatesAmino acid changes in HA, NA & MP leading to outbreak 6 May 2009 - Oliver Pybus and Samir Bhatt
So, I hear you ask, what amino acid changes have occurred along those long branches leading to the outbreak strain?
Right, we've gone and ...Falsepybus2009-05-08T15:45:54+00:00comasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 12:59:46+00:002009-05-08 12:59:46updated7rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-05-08 11:40:12+00:002009-05-08 11:40:12updated6Added tag - genetic structurecomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:49:11+00:002009-05-08 10:49:11addTag5Added tag - transmissioncomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:48:52+00:002009-05-08 10:48:52addTag4comasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:45:56+00:002009-05-08 10:45:56updated3Added tag - hotcomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:44:35+00:002009-05-08 10:44:35addTag2First additioncomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:37:39+00:002009-05-08 10:37:39created1wiki2009-05-08T12:59:46+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/8e6d0FalseMedian joining network (HA gene) - 7May2009 - Iñaki Comas/groups/influenza/wiki/8e6d0/Median_joining_network_HA_gene__7May2009__Iaki_Comas.htmlIñaki Comas7 updatesMedian joining network (HA gene) - 7May2009 - Iñaki Comas
I have created a median joining network with the HA sequences present in the NCBI as of 7May2009. This includes 49 isolates from different locat...Falsecomas2009-05-08T12:59:46+00:00hot/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomelist/groups/influenza/search/?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomeRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdates?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcome0/groups/influenza/sidebar/RecentChangesListmodifiedDateallRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdateswiki/welcomeNo recent changes.reverse5search
Comments
Justin Bahl
May 4, 2009
Cool! I've uploaded the PB1 dated tree (2008.19-2009.15) and the PB2 gene will be complete in a couple of hours.
Justin
Oliver Pybus
May 4, 2009
Nice. Don't forget "Oli's MP" (a different data set to Gavin's groups)
Oliver Pybus
May 4, 2009
One more thought - could you add a vertical line denoting date of first detection of the outbreak?
Mike Worobey
May 4, 2009
Thanks, guys. I've updated the figure. I've put the green bar at March 30...is there any confirmed evidence prior to that date?
Marc Suchard
May 4, 2009
A natural way to combine the estimates from across data sets is to use a hierarchical model. You could fit all data set simultaneously, or exploit an importance sampler to estimate the across-data-set-mean.
Justin Bahl
May 5, 2009
I've added a summary of the PB2 analysis. The TMRCA estimate of this gene is consistent with other estimates (2007.53-2009.13).
J
Andrew Rambaut
May 6, 2009
Marc - I knew you would say that. The data sets are largely non-independent, sharing different sets of taxa and different genes. It is more about how model choice and assumptions change the results.
I don't really see it starting Autumn last year - beginning of this year seems way more plausible from the numbers of cases and emergence from Mexico.
Andrew Rambaut
May 6, 2009
Are the larger scale analyses using precise dates of isolation or just years? Occurs to me that just using midpoint years could seriously affect the question of whether this outbreak started 6 months ago or 2.
Gavin Smith
May 6, 2009
When we have looked at H5N1 introductions it appears to have taken 3–6 months from intro to detection of the first outbreaks in poultry. If people aren't looking then could it perhaps circulate undetected in swine and/or human before causing clinical signs in someone who can be bothered enough to seek treatment?
When exactly is Autumn, start of September? Stupid I know but HK is (sort of) tropical and I am from the South so seasons are difficult.
Justin Bahl
May 6, 2009
We used exact dates for the current outbreak and our data only. The other isolates were assumed to be mid-year. But these are the smaller datasets.
Andrew Rambaut
May 6, 2009
By 'Autumn' I mean September-October. Sorry for being hemispherist - I will endeavor to avoid this in future.
Eddie Holmes
May 6, 2009
I agree with Andrew's response to Marc. You need to very careful here: these are analyses using very similar methods on very similar data sets. They should definitely not be considered independent estimates. Getting those early Mexican sequences is really crucial.
Mike Worobey
May 7, 2009
I disagree with Andrew's comment about the number of cases supporting a 2009 origin. I think we still have very little handle on the actual number of cases and it seems very plausible, given the evidence now that it probably has a similar virulence to seasonal flu, that it could have gone under the radar for months (as Gavin says). There's also the long tail of low numbers of hosts in the early phase of any exponential expansion...
Mike Worobey
May 7, 2009
Further to that, Andrew's complete genome BEAST analysis is the only one, of course, that does not rely on non-outbreak sequences to calibrate the molecular clock, which makes it cleaner. But it also depends on a tiny time window separating serial samples, and the mean rate inferred is about two times faster than the upper bound of the 95% HPDs of *any* of the individual gene analyses, and the complete genome seasonal human H1N1 analysis that I did. That's noteworthy. If negative selection dominates in this virus, I find it hard to believe there's really a much faster rate in the human/swine outbreak virus compared to what we see in seasonal H1N1 and classical swine flu H1N1 and the other swine viruses relevant to the various segments. But if anyone can convince me I'm wrong, it's Andrew, so I'll stand by for feedback.