Human/Swine H1N1 Influenza
HistoryEdited May 3, 2009 4:23 PM by Oliver Pybus…

Origin of outbreak (HA gene) 30 Apr 2009 - Oliver Pybus

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Origin of outbreak, HA gene analysis

Oliver Pybus 30-APR-2009

Data set comprised HA gene alignment comprising 141 sequences, 1700nt  long. I removed even more non-outbreak-related sequences removed for speed. Analysed in BEAST under a strict clock, GTR+gamma substitution model, 10-step Bayesian skyline plot. Results were combined from 6 independent runs, 45 million states in total. Strict clock and substitution model parameter values can be found here.

    Interpretation:

    • The TMRCA is essentially identical the one I did yesterday. It is earlier than the TMRCA reported by Andrew (using a different approach) but both analyses suggest the outbreak is several months old. 
    • The outbreak sequences are already starting to group by location. However, these groups should be treated with caution as they are only supported by a couple of mutations (whole genome analysis would identify clusters better).
    • We have 10 years of unsampled HA diversity leading up to this outbreak...

    Technical notes:

    • There is some alignment uncertainty in the last 3 nucleotides of New_York_20 and Ohio_07, so those sites were removed. 
    • The BSP group size parameters mix slowly (as usual...) so it is worth increasing the deltaexchange operator value.
    Download file "weds_mcc.pdf"
    weds_mcc.pdf


        

    Comments

    Andrew Rambaut
    Apr 30, 2009

    Worth noting that the new human strains are all dated contemporaneously even though with about a month of sampling now, the oldest sequence would be a fifth of the way back with a Nov-2008 TMRCA

    Oliver Pybus
    Apr 30, 2009

    Good point - I'll fix that in the next iteration. I don't expect it will have a big effect. I could do with more accurate sampling dates for the reference strains too. Anyone got those?

    Andrew Rambaut
    Apr 30, 2009

    There is a table on my BEAST analysis page (the New York ones are estimated as 6 days prior to the test results being known - the dates on GISAID are clearly wrong).

    Mike Worobey
    Apr 30, 2009

    The human H1N1 lineage's HA rate is very similar to the classical swine, which supports your use of this rate for another human outbreak.

    /groups/influenza/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=sectionlist/groups/influenza/search/?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=sectionSectionsCustomTagSidebarCustomTagSidebar?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=section0/groups/influenza/sidebar/CustomTagSidebarmodifiedDate5CustomTagSidebarreversesectionSectionscustom/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?tag=hotlist/groups/influenza/search/?tag=hotWhat’s HotHotListHot!?tag=hot20/groups/influenza/sidebar/HotListrambautAndrew Rambaut2010-04-22 13:35:38+00:002010-04-22 13:35:38updated12rambautAndrew Rambaut2010-04-22 13:34:53+00:002010-04-22 13:34:53updated11rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-07-08 14:53:06+00:002009-07-08 14:53:06updated10Updated links to final versionlycettSam Lycett2009-07-01 05:34:14+00:002009-07-01 05:34:14updated9rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:19+00:002009-06-12 07:40:19updated8Added tag - hotrambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:17+00:002009-06-12 07:40:17addTag7rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:08+00:002009-06-12 07:40:08updated6rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:27:06+00:002009-06-12 07:27:06updated5rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:17:50+00:002009-06-12 07:17:50updated4rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:15:25+00:002009-06-12 07:15:25updated3rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:15:17+00:002009-06-12 07:15:17updated2First additionrambautAndrew Rambaut2009-06-12 07:13:50+00:002009-06-12 07:13:50created1wiki2010-04-22T13:35:38+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/1b2c3FalseH1N1: Origins and evolution of the current epidemic/groups/influenza/wiki/1b2c3/H1N1_Origins_and_evolution_of_the_current_epidemic.htmlAndrew Rambaut12 updatesH1N1: Origins and evolution of the current epidemic Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic Gavin J. D. Smith1, Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna1...Falserambaut2010-04-22T13:35:38+00:00Shanghai/71T/09 does not have PB2-627KlycettSam Lycett2009-06-28 16:11:04+00:002009-06-28 16:11:04updated7lycettSam Lycett2009-06-28 16:06:53+00:002009-06-28 16:06:53updated6lycettSam Lycett2009-06-19 07:03:23+00:002009-06-19 07:03:23updated5Added tag - hotlycettSam Lycett2009-06-19 07:03:22+00:002009-06-19 07:03:22addTag4A/Shanghai/71T/2009 & PB2-627KlycettSam Lycett2009-06-18 22:40:51+00:002009-06-18 22:40:51updated3PB2-627K on A/Shanghai/71T/2009lycettSam Lycett2009-06-18 22:34:10+00:002009-06-18 22:34:10updated2First additionlycettSam Lycett2009-06-18 22:12:59+00:002009-06-18 22:12:59created1wiki2009-06-28T16:11:04+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/8bc58FalsePB2-627K & PB2-701N in A/Shanghai/71T/2009/groups/influenza/wiki/8bc58/PB2627K__PB2701N_in_AShanghai71T2009.htmlSam Lycett7 updatesPB2-627K & PB2-701N in A/Shanghai/71T/2009 Notes on A/Shanghai/71T/2009 by Sam Lycett Update 28 June 09 The sequences A/Shanghai/71T/2009 were updated on 24...Falselycett2009-06-28T16:11:04+00:00comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:28:29+00:002009-05-10 21:28:29updated6comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:27:07+00:002009-05-10 21:27:07updated5comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:26:45+00:002009-05-10 21:26:45updated4Added tag - hotcomasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:26:43+00:002009-05-10 21:26:43addTag3comasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:26:25+00:002009-05-10 21:26:25updated2First additioncomasIñaki Comas2009-05-10 21:13:16+00:002009-05-10 21:13:16created1wiki2009-05-10T21:28:29+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/aba06FalseUpdated Median Joining network (HA genes) - 8 May 2009 - Iñaki Comas/groups/influenza/wiki/aba06/Updated_Median_Joining_network_HA_genes__8_May_2009__Iaki_Comas.htmlIñaki Comas6 updatesUpdated Median Joining network (HA genes) - 8 May 2009 - Iñaki Comas Here is an update of the median joining network with all swine samples available at GISAID as of 8 of May. The alignment was provided by Oliver Pyb...Falsecomas2009-05-10T21:28:29+00:00pybusOliver Pybus2009-05-08 15:45:54+00:002009-05-08 15:45:54updated6pybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 19:32:17+00:002009-05-06 19:32:17updated5Added tag - selectionpybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:30:11+00:002009-05-06 18:30:11addTag4Added tag - hotpybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:29:59+00:002009-05-06 18:29:59addTag3pybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:29:25+00:002009-05-06 18:29:25updated2First additionpybusOliver Pybus2009-05-06 18:18:26+00:002009-05-06 18:18:26created1wiki2009-05-08T15:45:54+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/87337FalseAmino acid changes in HA, NA & MP leading to outbreak 6 May 2009 - Oliver Pybus and Samir Bhatt/groups/influenza/wiki/87337/Amino_acid_changes_in_HA_NA__MP_leading_to_outbreak_6_May_2009__Oliver_Pybus_and_Samir_Bhatt.htmlOliver Pybus6 updatesAmino acid changes in HA, NA & MP leading to outbreak 6 May 2009 - Oliver Pybus and Samir Bhatt So, I hear you ask, what amino acid changes have occurred along those long branches leading to the outbreak strain? Right, we've gone and ...Falsepybus2009-05-08T15:45:54+00:00comasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 12:59:46+00:002009-05-08 12:59:46updated7rambautAndrew Rambaut2009-05-08 11:40:12+00:002009-05-08 11:40:12updated6Added tag - genetic structurecomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:49:11+00:002009-05-08 10:49:11addTag5Added tag - transmissioncomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:48:52+00:002009-05-08 10:48:52addTag4comasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:45:56+00:002009-05-08 10:45:56updated3Added tag - hotcomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:44:35+00:002009-05-08 10:44:35addTag2First additioncomasIñaki Comas2009-05-08 10:37:39+00:002009-05-08 10:37:39created1wiki2009-05-08T12:59:46+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/8e6d0FalseMedian joining network (HA gene) - 7May2009 - Iñaki Comas/groups/influenza/wiki/8e6d0/Median_joining_network_HA_gene__7May2009__Iaki_Comas.htmlIñaki Comas7 updatesMedian joining network (HA gene) - 7May2009 - Iñaki Comas I have created a median joining network with the HA sequences present in the NCBI as of 7May2009. This includes 49 isolates from different locat...Falsecomas2009-05-08T12:59:46+00:00hot/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomelist/groups/influenza/search/?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomeRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdates?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcome0/groups/influenza/sidebar/RecentChangesListmodifiedDateallRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdateswiki/welcomeNo recent changes.reverse5search