TMRCA of outbreak 29 Apr - Oliver Pybus

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TMRCA of outbreak, HA gene analysis

Oliver Pybus 29-APR-2009

HA gene; BEAST strict clock, GTR+gamma, 10 step BSP, 5 runs (some non-outbreak-related sequences removed to speed things up)

Some observations: 
(i) The outbreak is, conservatively, a couple of months old.
(ii) The common ancestor with the nearest non-outbreak sequences is mid-1999.

mcc.pdf
Outbreak sequences are in red.
Green bars represent the 95% HPD limits of the date for each node, and are only shown for nodes with posterior probabilities > 0.5.




Comments

/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=sectionlist/groups/influenza/search/?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=sectionSectionsCustomTagSidebarCustomTagSidebar?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=section0/groups/influenza/sidebar/CustomTagSidebarmodifiedDate5CustomTagSidebarreversesectionSectionscustom/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?tag=hotlist/groups/influenza/search/?tag=hotWhat’s HotHotListHot!?tag=hot20/groups/influenza/sidebar/HotListrambaut2009-07-08 14:53:06+00:002009-07-08 14:53:06updated10Updated links to final versionlycett2009-07-01 05:34:14+00:002009-07-01 05:34:14updated9rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:19+00:002009-06-12 07:40:19updated8Added tag - hotrambaut2009-06-12 07:40:17+00:002009-06-12 07:40:17addTag7rambaut2009-06-12 07:40:08+00:002009-06-12 07:40:08updated6rambaut2009-06-12 07:27:06+00:002009-06-12 07:27:06updated5rambaut2009-06-12 07:17:50+00:002009-06-12 07:17:50updated4rambaut2009-06-12 07:15:25+00:002009-06-12 07:15:25updated3rambaut2009-06-12 07:15:17+00:002009-06-12 07:15:17updated2First additionrambaut2009-06-12 07:13:50+00:002009-06-12 07:13:50created1wiki2009-07-08T14:53:06+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/1b2c3FalseH1N1: Origins and evolution of the current epidemic/groups/influenza/wiki/1b2c3/H1N1_Origins_and_evolution_of_the_current_epidemic.htmlAndrew Rambaut10 updatesH1N1: Origins and evolution of the current epidemic Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic Gavin J. D. Smith1, Dhanasekaran Vijaykris...Falserambaut2009-07-08T14:53:06+00:00Shanghai/71T/09 does not have PB2-627Klycett2009-06-28 16:11:04+00:002009-06-28 16:11:04updated7lycett2009-06-28 16:06:53+00:002009-06-28 16:06:53updated6lycett2009-06-19 07:03:23+00:002009-06-19 07:03:23updated5Added tag - hotlycett2009-06-19 07:03:22+00:002009-06-19 07:03:22addTag4A/Shanghai/71T/2009 & PB2-627Klycett2009-06-18 22:40:51+00:002009-06-18 22:40:51updated3PB2-627K on A/Shanghai/71T/2009lycett2009-06-18 22:34:10+00:002009-06-18 22:34:10updated2First additionlycett2009-06-18 22:12:59+00:002009-06-18 22:12:59created1wiki2009-06-28T16:11:04+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/8bc58FalsePB2-627K & PB2-701N in A/Shanghai/71T/2009/groups/influenza/wiki/8bc58/PB2627K__PB2701N_in_AShanghai71T2009.htmlSam Lycett7 updatesPB2-627K & PB2-701N in A/Shanghai/71T/2009 Notes on A/Shanghai/71T/2009 by Sam Lycett Update 28 June 09 The sequences A/Shanghai/71T/2009 were updated on 24...Falselycett2009-06-28T16:11:04+00:00comas2009-05-10 21:28:29+00:002009-05-10 21:28:29updated6comas2009-05-10 21:27:07+00:002009-05-10 21:27:07updated5comas2009-05-10 21:26:45+00:002009-05-10 21:26:45updated4Added tag - hotcomas2009-05-10 21:26:43+00:002009-05-10 21:26:43addTag3comas2009-05-10 21:26:25+00:002009-05-10 21:26:25updated2First additioncomas2009-05-10 21:13:16+00:002009-05-10 21:13:16created1wiki2009-05-10T21:28:29+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/aba06FalseUpdated Median Joining network (HA genes) - 8 May 2009 - Iñaki Comas/groups/influenza/wiki/aba06/Updated_Median_Joining_network_HA_genes__8_May_2009__Iaki_Comas.htmlIñaki Comas6 updatesUpdated Median Joining network (HA genes) - 8 May 2009 - Iñaki Comas Here is an update of the median joining network with all swine samples available at GISAID as of 8 of May. The alignment was provided by Oliver Pyb...Falsecomas2009-05-10T21:28:29+00:00pybus2009-05-08 15:45:54+00:002009-05-08 15:45:54updated6pybus2009-05-06 19:32:17+00:002009-05-06 19:32:17updated5Added tag - selectionpybus2009-05-06 18:30:11+00:002009-05-06 18:30:11addTag4Added tag - hotpybus2009-05-06 18:29:59+00:002009-05-06 18:29:59addTag3pybus2009-05-06 18:29:25+00:002009-05-06 18:29:25updated2First additionpybus2009-05-06 18:18:26+00:002009-05-06 18:18:26created1wiki2009-05-08T15:45:54+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/87337FalseAmino acid changes in HA, NA & MP leading to outbreak 6 May 2009 - Oliver Pybus and Samir Bhatt/groups/influenza/wiki/87337/Amino_acid_changes_in_HA_NA__MP_leading_to_outbreak_6_May_2009__Oliver_Pybus_and_Samir_Bhatt.htmlOliver Pybus6 updatesAmino acid changes in HA, NA & MP leading to outbreak 6 May 2009 - Oliver Pybus and Samir Bhatt So, I hear you ask, what amino acid changes have occurred along those long branches leading to the outbreak strain? Right, we've gone and ...Falsepybus2009-05-08T15:45:54+00:00comas2009-05-08 12:59:46+00:002009-05-08 12:59:46updated7rambaut2009-05-08 11:40:12+00:002009-05-08 11:40:12updated6Added tag - genetic structurecomas2009-05-08 10:49:11+00:002009-05-08 10:49:11addTag5Added tag - transmissioncomas2009-05-08 10:48:52+00:002009-05-08 10:48:52addTag4comas2009-05-08 10:45:56+00:002009-05-08 10:45:56updated3Added tag - hotcomas2009-05-08 10:44:35+00:002009-05-08 10:44:35addTag2First additioncomas2009-05-08 10:37:39+00:002009-05-08 10:37:39created1wiki2009-05-08T12:59:46+00:00groups/influenza/wiki/8e6d0FalseMedian joining network (HA gene) - 7May2009 - Iñaki Comas/groups/influenza/wiki/8e6d0/Median_joining_network_HA_gene__7May2009__Iaki_Comas.htmlIñaki Comas7 updatesMedian joining network (HA gene) - 7May2009 - Iñaki Comas I have created a median joining network with the HA sequences present in the NCBI as of 7May2009. This includes 49 isolates from different locat...Falsecomas2009-05-08T12:59:46+00:00hot/groups/influenza/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomelist/groups/influenza/search/?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomeRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdates?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcome0/groups/influenza/sidebar/RecentChangesListmodifiedDateallRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdateswiki/welcomeNo recent changes.reverse5search